Experts warn of overcapacity when the consumption

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The consumption map of new energy vehicles was released. Experts warned of overcapacity

the domestic automotive industry has paid more attention to the sales data of new energy than to traditional vehicles. So where are these cars sold? Which types of cars sell best? Recently, Wilson Consulting Co., Ltd. released the "2016 China new energy vehicle market report" to draw a map of China's hot new energy consumption at this stage

in the distribution of new energy passenger vehicle sales in 2016, Beijing, Shanghai and Qingdao became the three major consumer cities of new energy, selling 63000, 42000 and 27000 vehicles respectively. Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Tianjin are the four cities with the largest number of individuals buying new energy vehicles. The license restriction policy of these four cities has become the biggest thrust of new energy vehicle consumption. Among the top ten cities in the total consumption of new energy passenger vehicles and the top ten cities in the personal market, six cities are licensed cities respectively

the consumer group of new energy is quite different from the expected emerging population. In the actual consumer market, about 1/3 are female car owners, and the average age of the consumer group is 35 years old. The main reason for consumers to buy new energy vehicles is the impact of unrestricted licensing and number restriction

in terms of car enterprises, most independent brands still rely mainly on subsidies, and still maintain an advantage in price. However, under the expectation that the new energy consumption will continue to grow explosively, the enclosure investment and capacity expansion of new energy vehicles have entered a race for speed. In this regard, an Qingheng, director of the China Automotive Industry Advisory Committee and former director of BAIC group, issued an early warning, hoping that car companies can remain calm and beware of the risk of excess new energy capacity and the risk that the production qualification of new energy vehicles cannot be approved

the consumption structure of new energy is guided by policy.

Wilson consulting released the new energy market report at the 2017 China Automotive Innovation Summit held by 21st Century Business Herald, which was only 1/8 of aluminum

in 2016, the total sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in China was 248600. The report shows that the total sales volume of the top ten cities reached 245000, basically digesting the demand for all new energy passenger vehicles. Vehicle license plate restrictions and new energy subsidy policies have become the two main driving forces to promote new energy consumption

in 2016, there were six cities with limited licenses in the top ten cities of new energy sales. Driven by the license restriction and subsidy policies, the private consumption of new energy in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other three cities accounted for a relatively large proportion, reaching 47900, 24000 and 20500 respectively, of which the private purchase of new energy in Beijing is twice that in Shanghai. A total of six cities sold more than 5000 private new energy vehicles in 2016

"from the perspective of the personal consumption structure of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen new energy market, the policy oriented results are obvious. Under the same subsidy, consumers prefer non plug-in hybrid models, followed by plug-in trams, and finally pure electric models." Zhu Kai, chief analyst of Wilson consulting, said

among the three major new energy passenger vehicle consumption cities, Beijing and Qingdao are mainly Bev (pure electric), and Shanghai is mainly PHEV (plug-in hybrid). "According to the different types of subsidies in their cities, except for Shanghai and Shenzhen, which provide subsidies for plug-in hybrid models, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles in the other eight cities is often higher than that of plug-in models."

the most typical representative is that in Beijing, which only provides subsidies for pure electric vehicles, of the 47900 personal new energy vehicles consumed, only 472 are plug-in hybrid vehicles; In Shanghai, which has subsidies for both pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles reached 19900, while the sales of pure electric vehicles was only 3707

in addition, corporate operation and capital operation account for a very large proportion of the consumption of the whole new energy market, with the proportion of personal and corporate consumption between 50% and 50%. In the top ten cities with unit users, all time-sharing leasing enterprises have settled in

with the increase of new energy vehicles and the initial expansion of market competition, the traces of local protection are normal to reduce the pressure under standard conditions, but still exist. In the Beijing market, the top three pure electric vehicle models that improve the air quality in the car and reduce the production and sales of volatile organic compounds are BAIC E5, BYD Qin and JAC IEV, with similar proportions. In the top three plug-in models in Shanghai, BYD Tang and Qin occupy two seats, of which Tang is the best-selling, accounting for 43.2%, Roewe 550 is the second, accounting for 27.6%, and BYD Qin accounts for 13%. The best-selling new energy models in Shenzhen and Guangzhou are monopolized by BYD and GAC

in addition, the concept of the new energy vehicle market is that the consumer group should be an emerging group, dominated by social elites, but the actual situation may be slightly different from the current situation. About 1/3 of the new energy vehicle consumption market is female owners, slightly higher than traditional vehicles; The main consumer group of new energy is years old

production capacity warning

although the new energy policies in many places were not announced in time, which had an impact on the sales volume in 2017, on the basis that the new energy markets in major cities across the country had been opened in 2016, the industry generally expressed optimism about the market prospects this year, and the same as the traditional vehicle consumption trend, the new energy vehicle enterprises participating in the 2017 China Automotive Innovation Summit have focused on SUVs. "Last year, Chinese SUVs accounted for more than 40% of the total market share, and they are growing every year. SUVs have been cut into many pieces, and each piece is large enough that no one can finish it." Lu Bin, senior vice president of strategic planning of Weima automobile, said

Lin MI, executive deputy general manager of Yundu new energy, said, "in the future, hundreds of thousands of car owners with new energy licenses in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen must upgrade their consumption. Today, they bought about 50000 and 100000 products. In the future, he thinks that electric cars are easy to use and that if they have money in their pockets, they will move towards higher-grade cars like traditional cars, from cars to SUVs."

however, an Qingheng, director of the China Automotive Industry Advisory Committee and former chairman of BAIC group, as a senior veteran in the industry, warned about the current expansion of new energy vehicles, pointing out that popular electric vehicles with high cost performance and strong practicality are the most needed by consumers at this stage

he also reminded that there are now as many as 200 domestic electric vehicle enterprises. The goal of new energy in the 2020 plan just released by the three ministries and commissions is expected to be 2million, "there is a risk of overcapacity. Can these 200 qualifications be approved? So far, 14 have been approved, what about those that cannot be approved?"

public data shows that up to now, 14 domestic enterprises have obtained production qualifications for new energy passenger vehicle projects, with a total planned capacity of 810000 vehicles. Based on the sales target of 2million vehicles, the required scale of new energy vehicle enterprises will be maintained at about 30

Wilson's consulting report points out that from the actual payment price after excluding subsidies, the average payment price of joint venture brands is twice that of independent brands. The price advantage of independent brands mainly depends on government subsidies. Once the subsidies are withdrawn, independent brands with no price advantage will face the technology and market competition with joint venture brands. This means that for independent brands, the cancellation of the subsidy policy will start the first round of reshuffle of new energy vehicles, and the rapidly expanding production capacity will become a double-edged sword. The market scale may be the main strategy for independent brands to fight against the decline of subsidies, and it may also make enterprises face the dual crisis of overcapacity and declining competitiveness

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