The hottest machine crosses the robot's vast track

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[machinery] cross the vast robot track and look for the rising star

source: Tianfeng research

※ as we all know, under the premise of the continuous increase of labor costs and the improvement of downstream fineness requirements, the industry is a competition road with great potential. However, the research on the robot industry is relatively difficult. This paper creatively uses the big data mining method based on a large amount of first-hand information for research

the main difficulty of robots lies in the complexity of robot classification. Each market segment has different space and stage. We need to find a track with greater development opportunities in the future. Together with Fuyun data, a leading big data analysis company in China, and Pamir, an expert company, we have creatively established a top-down research system different from the previous market, that is, we first screen out the track with a better growth foundation, and then refine its industry space, business model, competitive barriers and other issues. We creatively use two research methods: big data mining analysis + industrial chain verification. Compared with traditional research, it greatly reduces the dependence on second-hand information and makes statistics, analysis and interpretation from first-hand information

※ big data analysis: from the four dimensions, we found that industrial robots, homework robots and inspection machines are mainly used for static and dynamic load performance tests of parts and large structural parts and dynamic load fatigue life testers. People have a better growth foundation, and entertainment, medical, national defense and special cleaning robots are relatively more emerging

we divide the robot industry into three categories and seven sub industries, with a total sample of nearly 1000 enterprises. We analyze it from four dimensions by using Python technology and Internet public opinion index: public opinion index analysis: from the perspective of categories, household robots have the highest popularity, industrial robots have the highest number of people, and professional service robots have the lowest. From the perspective of segmentation: industrial robots: welding robots are the most popular; Household robots: Entertainment robots are more popular than homework robots; Professional service robots: site inspection robots are the most popular, followed by medical robots. Time of establishment: the sunrise attribute of the robot industry is clear, and 78% of robot enterprises have been established for no more than 10 years; Industrial, inspection and homework robot companies have been established for a relatively long time; Medical and national defense safety limit protection: with program-controlled and mechanical bipolar protection and entertainment robots are relatively more emerging. Financing index: Homework robots are mainly financed by round B or above, accounting for 65.22%, followed by industrial robots, accounting for 46.49%. This means that these two industries are relatively mature; The proportion of b-round and above financing of defense, patrol inspection, medical and entertainment robots is 40%. Intellectual property: We analyzed the patent applications of the sample companies in. The number of patents for homework robots is the largest, accounting for 25% of the total number; Industrial robots take the second place, with patents accounting for 19% of the total number; The number of patents of site inspection robots accounts for 18% of the total number; In the fields of entertainment and leisure, medicine, national defense safety and professional cleaning robots, there are no more research reports in the follow-up literature, and the proportion of profit to the total number is 14%, 9%, 8% and 6% respectively

※ we analyze two sub industries with relatively mature application scenarios and industrial chain Foundation: industrial robots:

industrial robots: 1) industry space: industrial robots still have certain investment value. First, the industry volume is large. According to IFR statistics, the sales volume of industrial robots in China in 2018 was 154000, and the market volume reached 43billion yuan. Second, due to economic reasons, despite the decline in, the industry still has a medium and long-term growth foundation. We estimate that under the accelerated penetration scenario, 186400 units will be added in the next three years; 2) Driving factor: the payback period of industrial robot investment is gradually shortened from 2.48 years to 1.39 years. With the continuous improvement of the economy of industrial robots, we see that their application fields are gradually expanding; 3) Competition pattern: in the two fields of handling, loading and unloading and metal processing, the market share of domestic robots has gradually increased to about 50%, and the market share of clean room robots has reached about 35%. Chinese robots still need to achieve breakthroughs in welding, assembly and disassembly, painting and other fields, which mainly depends on the continuous progress of domestic robots in processing efficiency, accuracy, fatigue resistance and stability. Homework robots: 1) industry space: the annual sales of floor sweeping robots in China increased rapidly from 570000 to 4.83 million in; In 2019, the number of units sold is expected to be about 4.35 million. Under the three scenarios of pessimism, neutrality and optimism, we calculate that the annual demand in the next five years is 4.92 million, 6.32 million and 9.12 million units respectively, which has a certain growth compared with the average year of 2019; 2) Driving factors: demand side: penetration is improved. The penetration of Chinese sweeping robots is expected to reach 5.38% in 2020, only half of that of the United States, and there is still much room for improvement; Supply side: the sweeping robot still has a large technical space, and intelligent products with new highlights such as AI and laser navigation will continue to be launched; 3) Competition pattern: the market tends to be centralized, with the total market share of the top three brands reaching 71%, an increase of 10 percentage points over the same period last year, and (Xiaomi) leading the development of the industry. SL therefore, many people now require to configure metallographic analysis system am algorithm, path planning algorithm, motion control algorithm, etc. as the core of technical competition

※ a crowd of heroes compete: have we found listed/unlisted companies with great potential

from the perspective of the number of technical patents, we have discovered: industrial robots: Xinsong robot, Houda intelligent, Purdue technology, etc; Inspection robots: Dajiang innovation, Guozi robot, Langchi Xinchuang, Chengdu artein, etc; Entertainment and leisure robots: you must choose, Rubo technology, future partners, etc; Homework robots: covos, stone technology, Baole robot, Haier, etc; Defense security robots: deep blue technology, deep blue, Yunzhou intelligence, etc; Medical robots: Xiangyu medical, mga robot, Shurui technology, tianzhihang, etc. Among the listed companies, we select companies whose profits exceed the industry median, and most of the profits are contributed by the robotics and automation business:,,, tostar, covos, stone technology,,, iFLYTEK, Yijiahe,,, new third board manipulator company Brant, etc

risk tips: there may be risks such as incomplete samples, lack of representativeness, inaccurate data, etc; The macro-economy continues to be significantly lower than expected, which affects the release of robot demand and vicious price competition among new entrants; Residents' consumption upgrading ability is blocked, etc

Securities Research Report "machinery: crossing the vast track of robots, looking for tomorrow's stars!"

release time: February 18, 2020

report Publishing Agency Co., Ltd. (has obtained the qualification of securities investment consulting business approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission)

Zou Runfang's sac practice certificate number: s

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